“Tonyo” Now Outside PAR

As of PAGASA’s 5:00 AM forecast today, November 9, 2020, Tropical Storm Tonyo is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  And according to the forecast, there are no areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS).

Location of Eye of Tonyo

The eye of Tonyo was estimated based on all available data at 710 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (Outside PAR) as of 4:00 AM today.

Movement and Strength of Tonyo

Tropical Strom Tonyo is moving Westward at 30 km/hw with a maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

Forecast Position of Tonyo

November 10, 2020 (24 Hour-Tomorrow morning):  1,215 km West of Southern Luzon (Outside PAR)(12.4°N, 110.0°E).

Track and Intensity Outlook of Tonyo

• “TONYO” intensified into a tropical storm at 2:00 AM today and left the Philippine Area of Responsibility at 4:00 AM.
• The storm is forecast to continue moving generally westward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern portion of Vietnam, where it is likely to make landfall tomorrow morning or afternoon.

Hazards affecting land areas

Heavy rainfall

• Tonyo is forecast to bring moderate to heavy rains today over:
  • Kalayaan Islands
• The prevailing easterlies enhanced by “Tonyo” and “Ulysses” will bring moderate to heavy rains over:
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Mainland Cagayan Valley
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Aurora
  • The northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands.
• Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over:
  • Metro Manila
  • Bicol Region
  • Eastern Visayas
  • The rest of Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, and CALABARZON.

Strong winds

• Although not under TCWS #1, the outer region of the tropical depression’s circulation will bring occasional gusty condition over:
  • Kalayaan Islands.
• The Northeast Monsoon enhanced by Tonyo will bring strong to gale-force winds over:
  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Apayao
  • The northern portion of mainland Cagayan.=

Hazards affecting coastal waters

• Due to Tonyo, in the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will be experienced over:
  • The seaboards of Kalayaan Islands
• Due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon, rough to very rough seas will be experienced ove the seaboards of:
  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Ilocos Sur
  • La Union
  • Pangasinan
  • Zambales
  • The northern seaboards of mainland Cagayan

Furthermore, sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.

• Tonyo will also bring moderate to rough seas over the western seaboards of:
  • Bataan
  • Batangas
  • Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
  • Palawan including Calamian Islands.

And, mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Source: PAGASA