Baguio Weather Today

“Siony” Maintains Strength as it Move Slowly over Extreme Northern Luzon



According to the 11:00 AM forecast of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) today, November 4, 2020 (Wednesday), Tropical Storm “Siony” has maintained its strength as it continues to move slowly over the Philippine Sea East of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Location of the Eye of “Siony”

According to PAGASA, as of 10:00 AM, Siony’s center was estimated based on all available data at 755 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.0 °N, 129.2 °E ).

Movement and Strength of “Siony”

Siony is moving Eastward slowly and has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.

Forecast Position of “Siony”

November 5, 2020 (24 Hour-Tomorrow morning)

  • 495 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.4 °N, 126.2 °E)

November 6, 2020 (48 Hour-Friday morning)

  • 110 km Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan (19.9 °N, 120.7 °E)

November 7, 2020 (72 Hour-Saturday morning)

  • 625 km West of Basco, Batanes (Outside PAR) ( 20.5 °N, 116.0 °E)

November 8, 2020 (96 Hour-Sunday morning)

    • 995 km West of Northern Luzon (Outside PAR) ( 18.6 °N, 111.2 °E)

Track and Intensity Outlook of “Siony”

Track

      • Siony is forecast to move slowly or remain almost stationary in the next 12 hours.
      • TS Siony will move generally westward or west-northwestward towards the:
        • Luzon Strait
        • Extreme Northern Luzon.
      • It will bring the center of “SIONY” over or very close to the Batanes and Babuyan Islands between tomorrow evening and Friday morning. As such, a landfall scenario over these localities remains likely.
      • “SIONY” will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening according to the forecast track. 

Intensity

      • “Siony” is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours and reach its peak intensity of 100-110 km/h tomorrow prior to its landfall or close approach over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, intensification into the typhoon category is not ruled out at this time.

Hazards affecting land areas

Strong winds

      • In the next 24 hours, the northeasterlies enhanced by Tropical Storms “ROLLY” and “SIONY” will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds with higher gusts over:
        • Batanes
        • Babuyan Islands
        • Northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte
      • In anticipation of the strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the tropical storm, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is now in effect for several areas in Extreme Northern Luzon.
      • Based on all available meteorological data, the highest wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #2. However, because intensification into the typhoon category remains a potential scenario at this time, the possibility of hoisting TCWS #3 in areas near or along the projected track of the storm is not ruled out.

Heavy rains

      • The combined effects of the northeasterlies and the trough of “SIONY” will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over:
        • Bicol Region
        • Northern Samar
        • Aurora
        • Quezon
        • Eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela
      • Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall from tropical cyclones “PEPITO”, “QUINTA”, and “ROLLY”.
      • PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters

      • The combined effects of “ROLLY”, “SIONY”, and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) over:
        • The entire seaboards of Northern Luzon
        • The northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
        • The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
        • The seaboards of Aurora, Camarines Norte, Kalayaan Islands, and northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands).
      • Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.
      • Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over:
        • The western seaboard of Central Luzon
        • The eastern and western seaboards of Southern Luzon
        • The eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.
      • Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1

According to PAGASA’s forecast, the following areas in Luzon are affected by the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1:

    • The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
    • The eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Isl., Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)

Furthermore, PAGASA’s next Severe Weather Bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

Source: PAGASA

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